Will 2016 catch up to amazing 2005 total transactions of 1,473?
Average price of a home in our area is $282,064
By
Mark Schadenberg
Here's my end of September sales report:
Total sales for an entire calendar year – dating back to 2005 – are noted
here:
Year-By-Year
Numbers (Totals in WIDREB)
2015: 1424
2014: 1180
2013: 1252 2012:
1066 2011: 1158
2010: 1216 2009: 1080 2008: 1176 2007:
1359
2006: 1278 2005:
1473 (Correct)
Average for past 10 years: 1242
Question.
What
do you think the total Woodstock-Ingersoll district real estate board sales are
for the first 9 months of 2016?
How
about 1,050?
No
Perhaps
1,125?
No
Could
it be as high as 1,175?
No.
The
first 9 months of 2016 has surpassed the full 12 months of 2008, 2009, 2011,
2012 and 2014.
Total
reported MLS sales in WIDREB at the end of September is: 1,205.
The
actual month of September included a respectable 118 sales as compared to 114
last year, 123 in 2014, 127 in 2013 and just 99 in 2012.
As I have noted in most reports, the transactions totals would be higher if the inventory (number of listings) was higher. Currently, in Woodstock in the active price bracket of $240,000 - $280,000 there are 14 listings, but 6 don't really exist as they are townhomes under construction by either Claysam or Breymark.
Since
I have reported previously that the average price of a residential home in
Woodstock and Ingersoll area has moved upward by about 15% in the past 12
months, a mathematician would tell you that sustaining that rate month after
month is not an easy task as it represents about 1.1% increase compounded month
over month. The average price at the end of September was $282,064 as opposed
to $270,109 at end of September 2015, and 246,445 at the conclusion of
September 2014.
Here's the point about averages. If a baseball pitcher had 9 good outings in a row and then in a 10th appearance allowed 6 runs in 3 innings, the ERA would move up substantially. My
abacus would show a 4.3% increase over the last 12 months (282 versus 270), but at the same time the average
actually declined from $308,121 reported by the board in August of 2016.
The
WIDREB press release at the end of August said this:
The
average price of homes sold in August 2016 was a record $308,121, rising 20.7
per cent from August 2015. The year-to-date average price was $282,635, up 15.1
per cent on a year-over-year basis.
No
matter which way you slice the pie, the average of $282,064 still represents an
increase and if you factor in high-end sales versus a few lower priced
properties sold, an average can quite easily dip up and down from one month to
the next.
In
actual fact, the year-to-date average price is very close to $282,000 so August
was a statistical bubble.
Numbers for the Brantford-area board are also noted below and they too have a noted lack of listings. If the cupboards are only half full, the inventory is low.
Numbers for the Brantford-area board are also noted below and they too have a noted lack of listings. If the cupboards are only half full, the inventory is low.
I
have included a link below to my September blog on the huge number of
residential projects in Woodstock, which also indicates that 2017 should be a
brisk year in real estate as many home owners either down size to an apartment
or possibly buy a larger home.
LINKS:
http://markroyallepage.blogspot.ca/2016/07/woodstock-is-growing-with-many.html
http://www.torontosun.com/2016/09/15/household-debt-climbs-to-record-levels-driven-partly-by-hot-real-estate-markets
http://www.brantfordexpositor.ca/2016/10/16/lack-of-local-homes-on-the-marklet
http://www.brantfordexpositor.ca/2016/10/16/lack-of-local-homes-on-the-marklet
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