May the sales in June be as good as May
Do
statistics predict the future?
By
Mark Schadenberg
In
our Woodstock-Ingersoll District real estate board area I would say:
NO.
WIDREB
had its best May sales totals since 2010.
Sales
numbers do indicate what has happened and in 2014 it began slow due
to the horrendous winter we encountered.
The
2013 calendar was a good year, but actually average when you look
back at the past dozen or so years.
Many
of these numbers I have reported before. If a Realtor you are talking
to doesn't show you real numbers, call another Realtor.
Year-By-Year
Totals
2013:
1196 2012: 1065 2011: 1159
2010:
1216 2009: 1080 2008: 1176
2007:
1359 2006: 1278 2005: 1473 (correct)
2004:
1366 2003: 1153 Average: 1229
Keep
in mind, these stats are solely for reported MLS activity, and do not
include private sales or custom-built contracts not ever advertised
(listed) MLS.
The
2014 calendar has started somewhat slowly, mostly due to the
early-year winter, with only 204 sales in the first quarter (three
months) versus 272 last year, 253 in 2012, 288 in 2011 and . . . .
313 in 2007.
The
month of April this year included 121 sales, versus 127 in
2013, just 93 in 2012, 102 in 2011, 162 in 2010, and 101 in 2009.
It's
more interesting to look back at the month of May in recent years.
2014:
141 2013: 127 2012: 100 2011: 111
2010:
145 2009: 98 2008: 122 2007: 132
2006:
143 2005: 195
In
2005, there were 647 sales in the first five months, versus 466 this
year. The land assembly for Toyota was the obvious difference as
there was significant hype in Oxford County.
Also
affecting sales is fact the federal government tightened up rules for
mortgages -- including shorter amortization periods and necessity for
a 'real' down payment. Then, effective May 1, 2014, CMHC increased
the percentage of insurance premium on 5% down to 3.15% from 2.75.
If
I was to do an evaluation on your home, it would be based on many
factors: age, size, neighbourhood, garage or not, any and all
updates, number of bedrooms above grade, and a comparison of other
homes on the market and those recently sold.
In
the appraiser world of effective age versus actual age, an appraiser
would closely consider depreciation and wear-and-tear of elements
(shingles, bathrooms and kitchens, flooring, mechanicals, etc), and
make a mathematical calculation versus square footage, size of lot,
and condition of the overall neighbourhood.
An
insurance company would want to determine cost-to-replace brand new,
which for your house would be quite high based on its age.
A
Realtor's task is to tell you what your home will sell for in a now
market.
LSTAR
is London – St Thomas area
The
Spring Market might have been slow out of the gate in the London –
St. Thomas area, but it more than made up for any lost time in May.
A total of 988 homes exchanged hands last month, the highest record
for a month in six years.
Condo
sales took it over the top as 793 detached homes sold in May, up
0.5%, but it was the 195 condo sales - up 28.3% - that made the
difference.
"Condo
sales have been lagging over the past several years," says Jim
Holody, president of the London and St. Thomas Association of
REALTORS, "So we knew there was pent-up demand. What we're
seeing here . . . and last month when they were up as well, is a
market correction – a very positive one in light of the important
role condos play in the housing mix."
Listings
for detached homes were up 1.5% in LSTAR in May. Not surprisingly,
given the number of condo sales in May, listings for condos were down
2.2%. Nevertheless, the market continues to be a balanced one, with
advantages for both buyers and sellers.
"We're
starting to see the market heat up," says Holody. "Now that
one of the longest and coldest winters in living memory is finally
over, people are going to be out and about, looking at real estate.
We anticipate a brisk summer market going forward.
"St.
Thomas sales are a little soft," says Holody, "but the
prices are holding and that’s important."
The
City of St. Thomas saw 73 homes change hands in May, 13 short of the
previous May but not far off the 10-year average for May of 79 sales.
Listings were down by 17 units and the average price for a home in
St. Thomas (Year To Date), stands at $202,155, up 0.3% compared to
December 31, 2013.
"London's
average price continues to rise in small increments, just as CMHC
predicted," says Holody.
The
average price of a detached home in LSTAR's jurisdiction in May 2014
stood at $275,779, up 2.3% from April 2014, while the price of a
condo rose 15.1% to $193,990. The average price for all homes sold in
LSTAR's jurisdiction in May 2014 was $259,636, up 4.3% from April
2014.
Mark
Schadenberg, Sales
Representative
Senior
Real Estate Specialist (SRES designation)
Royal
LePage Triland Realty
757
Dundas St, Woodstock
www.wesellwoodstock.com
(519)
537-1553, cell or text
Email:
mschadenberg@rogers.com
Twitter:
markroyallepage
Facebook:
Mark Schadenberg, Royal LePage Triland
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