Wednesday, 16 April 2014

WIDREB numbers not quite a home run in first quarter

2014 starts out better than 2009, but trails 2013
By Mark Schadenberg
Making a comparison of real estate sales to the long 162-game schedule in Major League Baseball, you can easily say that the WIDREB sales stats still have lots of time to catch up to the 2013 final total.
You don't win the American League East in April and May, but can you fall out of contention?
The season (year) is only one-quarter (three months) completed and the Woodstock - Ingersoll district real estate board, which I have been a member of for more than 15 seasons (years), is lagging behind numbers of 2013 and is significantly behind the 3-month production of the years 2011, 2010, 2007, 2006 and 2004, as is depicted here.
Year     March Sales      Jan-Feb-Mar Total
2014       92                        204
2013       94                        272
2012    107                        253
2011    124                        288
2010    136                        285
2009      71                        165 (Correct)
2008    101                        264
2007    114                        313 (Correct)
2006    131                        293
2005    109                        277
2004    137                        298
Looking back maybe 4 entries here to quotable quotes from Royal LePage president and CEO Phil Soper in an earlier blog, all Realtors are still optimistic that 2014 will be a strong year with melting snow, we know the spring market will soon arrive if full force.
It does become more important that you as a buyer or seller confirm to working with someone like myself – a full-time Realtor as we currently have a low number of listings and you don't want to miss out on your best opportunity. I'm not one to extol the number of new listings as being the truth from the old testament of Noah (or Jonah and the whale) as many expired listings are simply re-listed as if they are new to the market. The inventory, however, is low when looking back to April of previous years.

Average Sale Price
The average sales price in WIDREB has moved up to $233,705 in March of 2014, compared to $224,891 last year, but only a rather modest upswing since March of 2007 at $211,699. I still firmly believe it's the increase in lot prices for new construction and the cost of building materials that drives that average upward.

Changes On Horizon
Questions on the horizon for market activity include the increase in CMHC insurance percentages on high-ratio mortgages (less than 20% down payment). For example, if you have just 5% down, your insurance total will (after May 1) be calculated at 3.15% of your total mortgage, up from 2.75. Therefore, the CMHC fee on a $200,000 loan will rise from $5,500 to to $6,300, which is about $6 per month over a 25-year amortization, but it does make a difference.
A story in the Globe And Mail national newspaper also states that the banking watchdogs will be watching both the lending institutions and CMHC (along with Genworth and Canada Guaranty) as to qualifying buyers. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, is set to react to the viewpoints of the 3 insurance firms based on their specific rules for underwriting mortgages. The deadline for their (three insurance companies) comment is May 23.
My only difficulty in any of these changes is that the banks know they take a risk with each new mortgage by a first-time buyer, but these lending institutions must also be confident the homes are worth their 'purchase price' by conducting appraisals on a higher percentage of high-ratio home-buying deals.

GLOBE AND MAIL Link:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/regulator-lays-groundwork-for-new-mortgage-rules/article17956314/


Mark Schadenberg, Sales Representative
Senior Real Estate Specialist (SRES designation)
Royal LePage Triland Realty
757 Dundas St, Woodstock
www.wesellwoodstock.com
(519) 537-1553, cell or text
Email: mschadenberg@rogers.com
Twitter: markroyallepage
Facebook: Mark Schadenberg, Royal LePage Triland

Discussion . . . Direction . . . Determination . . . Destination

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