2014 starts out better than 2009, but trails 2013
By
Mark Schadenberg
Making
a comparison of real estate sales to the long 162-game schedule in
Major League Baseball, you can easily say that the WIDREB sales stats
still have lots of time to catch up to the 2013 final total.
You
don't win the American League East in April and May, but can you fall
out of contention?
The
season (year) is only one-quarter (three months) completed and the
Woodstock - Ingersoll district real estate board, which I have been a
member of for more than 15 seasons (years), is lagging behind numbers
of 2013 and is significantly behind the 3-month production of the
years 2011, 2010, 2007, 2006 and 2004, as is depicted here.
Year March Sales Jan-Feb-Mar Total
2014 92 204
2013 94 272
2012 107 253
2011 124 288
2010 136 285
2009 71 165
(Correct)
2008 101 264
2007 114 313
(Correct)
2006 131 293
2005 109 277
2004 137 298
Looking
back maybe 4 entries here to quotable quotes from Royal LePage
president and CEO Phil Soper in an earlier blog, all Realtors are
still optimistic that 2014 will be a strong year with melting snow,
we know the spring market will soon arrive if full force.
It
does become more important that you as a buyer or seller confirm to
working with someone like myself – a full-time Realtor as we
currently have a low number of listings and you don't want to miss
out on your best opportunity. I'm not one to extol the number of new
listings as being the truth from the old testament of Noah (or Jonah
and the whale) as many expired listings are simply re-listed as if
they are new to the market. The inventory, however, is low when
looking back to April of previous years.
Average Sale Price
The
average sales price in WIDREB has moved up to $233,705 in March of
2014, compared to $224,891 last year, but only a rather modest
upswing since March of 2007 at $211,699. I still firmly believe it's
the increase in lot prices for new construction and the cost of
building materials that drives that average upward.
Changes
On Horizon
Questions
on the horizon for market activity include the increase in CMHC
insurance percentages on high-ratio mortgages (less than 20% down
payment). For example, if you have just 5% down, your insurance total
will (after May 1) be calculated at 3.15% of your total mortgage, up
from 2.75. Therefore, the CMHC fee on a $200,000 loan will rise from
$5,500 to to $6,300, which is about $6 per month over a 25-year amortization,
but it does make a difference.
A
story in the Globe And Mail national newspaper also states that the
banking watchdogs will be watching both the lending institutions and
CMHC (along with Genworth and Canada Guaranty) as to qualifying
buyers. The Office of the Superintendent of
Financial Institutions, is set to react to the viewpoints of the 3 insurance firms based on their specific rules for underwriting
mortgages. The deadline for their (three insurance companies) comment
is May 23.
My
only difficulty in any of these changes is that the banks know they
take a risk with each new mortgage by a first-time buyer, but these
lending institutions must also be confident the homes are worth their
'purchase price' by conducting appraisals on a higher percentage of
high-ratio home-buying deals.
GLOBE AND MAIL Link:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/regulator-lays-groundwork-for-new-mortgage-rules/article17956314/
Mark
Schadenberg, Sales
Representative
Senior
Real Estate Specialist (SRES designation)
Royal
LePage Triland Realty
757
Dundas St, Woodstock
www.wesellwoodstock.com
(519)
537-1553, cell or text
Email:
mschadenberg@rogers.com
Twitter:
markroyallepage
Facebook:
Mark Schadenberg, Royal LePage Triland
Discussion
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