Tuesday, 16 October 2018

Not an easy decision to determine who to vote for

Looking at the statistician's viewpoint of municipal elections

By Mark Schadenberg
Sports fans love their statistics such as greens in regulation in golf, batting average in baseball, and goalie save percentage in hockey.
In terms of election tabulations, statistics are also very important. It's more than counting jelly beans in a jar.
In 2014, the 4th place finisher in the City (only) Council race finished just 18 votes apart from 5th. Todd Poetter was a narrow victor in the win-place-show-fourth race by just .06%.
Your vote does count.
Therefore, when I talk about the numbers for the 2018 election and considering there are 7 candidates vying for 4 positions, stats or strategic voting would depict a picture saying that a voter should only vote for the people they truly want elected. In other words, after your research, head scratching and soul searching is over you may have narrowed down your list to 3 candidates then your best option (only option truly) is to vote only for your top 3.
Further to this, if you truly want just 1 specific person to finish in the top 4, then just vote for that 1 name.
Since you can not vote as if it's a rated or weighted system, then your first choice selection and your fourth choice are truly weighted identically -- as 1 vote apiece. In actual fact the top voter receiver in 2014 in the City Council tabulation had just 12.12%, while 6th place was at 9.72%. You can see the numbers are quite close.
There were just 8,817 ballots cast. The overall turnout should be much higher than about 35%, but that seems to be the on-going trend.
I and other candidates have been stressing along the door knocking and chatting to eligible voters that we all want people to vote. It's a privilege.
In 2014, the winning Mayor (Trevor Birtch) -- in a 3-person battle -- had just over 40% of the vote, while the next 2 were at 33.79 and 26.14.
Your vote counts.
In the City / County the top 2 (Deb Tait and Sandra Talbot) in 2014 had a significant advantage over the other 4 contestants.
My perspective is this. Vote only for the people you truly want to represent you in local government, so that could be just 1 for City Council, or 2, or 3 and certainly 4. Don't feel as if you haven't done your homework if you select only 3 (for example) of the 7 vying for a seat. In other words, don't assist someone else in winning if you really were not convinced you should support them.
I believe my record of community volunteering, especially the recreation advisory committee, has placed myself in a position where I am a strong candidate. My 19+ years as a Realtor has placed my focus on subdivisions, zonings, boundary adjustment and building codes. I have always had a keen eye for current events on the local stage. Please read other posts in this site to see my background including the 52 reasons to vote for Mark which I posted on my 52nd birthday.
Be sure to vote!
Vote for Mark Schadenberg because for me 'The Time is Now'
Myself in 2014 with Royal LePage corporate president Phil Soper.

A vintage Sentinel-Review newsroom staff photo

Representing the Lions Club of Woodstock 
as I stand at the Salvation Army kettle.


Co-chair of Canadian Cancer Society's Relay For Life
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