Tuesday, 16 May 2017

Looking over my (real estate) shoulders at April of 2017

Vibrant market continued through the 4th month of this year

Updates from K-W and London confirm the many recent trends 

As you may know, I’m a former sports editor of the Woodstock Sentinel-Review (1992-98), so you know 4 (I often evolve away from CP style) things – I love Woodstock, sports, the media, and I maintain many contacts in local media.
For example, I often write about news / happenings on these pages that the local media has not covered, so after I write about a particular topic I often suggest to the Sentinel, Heart FM, Country 104, that they should promote the same item of interest. The local media sometimes follows my lead.
After I wrote about expansions at both Ecole Ste Marguerite Bourgeoys and Southside School, soon there was local press clippings / reports on the same.
Look back to my recent writings 
about schools expansions in Woodstock
At the same parallel time, local media may contact me on occasion looking for assistance on real estate, the local sports wall of fame, Relay For Life (Cancer Society) and other areas of my personal interest.
Heather Rivers is a terrific reporter at the Sentinel-Review and she contacted me for both the current Woodstock-Ingersoll real estate stats for April (I noticed – by the way – in the mass email sent to all real estate offices and media that the WIDREB board sent its press release to a non-existent Sentinel email address).


APRIL 2017
While the month of April in 2017 topped April of 2005 by a narrow margin, the story only starts there as April of 2005 (you may recall) was unique in Woodstock history as speculation about a major economic announcement for Woodstock was brewing. It wasn’t until June of 2005 that Toyota officially announced it had assembled land on the east end of Woodstock to build a massive manufacturing facility to assemble the RAV 4. It was remarkable how quiet this compiling of farms, rural residential and Blandford Square Mall talks were initially. Great news in the end as Toyota was expanding its Ontario manufacturing operations from Cambridge to also include Woodstock.


In April of 2017 sales (WIDREB transactions; Woodstock, Ingersoll, Norwich, Beachville, Innerkip, Sweaburg, Salford, Embro, Drumbo, etc., but not Tillsonburg) were 163, compared to 162 in April of 2005.
In four months of 2017 there have been 601 calculated sales, compared to 477 sales last year, which eventually ended up as an overall yearly number to exceed 2005. (See numbers below)  
Numbers have stayed relatively tied to both local and national economic indicators as you will see from the graphics and slew of numbers, and if you add in the idea that in April of 2004 there were 139 sales and a 4-month total of 437, and in 2006 there were 103 April sales and a 4-month total of 396

Here are my quotes and other details I submitted to Heather.      

"Many interesting statistics can be deciphered from the recent reported sales totals (from the WIDREB office). In April of 2015 -- just 2 years ago -- 26 per cent of all sales (141 total sales / 37) were in the modest 200,000 - 260,000 price range. Now that per cent is only about 7 (163 / 18) which means the entry-level price range is quickly out-pacing an amount first-time buyers are hoping to be able to purchase at."
    
Year-by-year total WIDREB sales numbers.
2016: 1545
2015: 1424                         2014: 1180                           2013: 1252                                        
2012: 1066                         2011: 1158                          2010: 1216                            
2009: 1080                            2008: 1176                          2007: 1359   
2006: 1278                            2005: 1473
The above numbers I have posted almost every month as the WIDREB overall picture.
"Last year in the WIDREB trading area the transactions totals easily surpassed the remarkable year of 2005 when Toyota announced it was building a manufacturing facility in Woodstock (1,545 compared to 1,473). Now in 2017, we are quickly surpassing last year's pace at 624 sales already versus 477 in the first 4 months of 2016."
Everything is relative and comparable when you look at nearby Kitchener.
"However, looking just down the road to the Kitchener-Waterloo region where the average price of a detached home is now $594,453 and the overall average is 512,000, it would certainly appear as if the Woodstock area is actually quite reasonable at about $355,000"

“In quick math terms, with an increase of just over 30% on the sale price of any home, if your house was worth $200,000 in April of 2016, it's now market value could easily be in the range of $260,000 -- quite an increase in just 12 months.” 

"It truly is the economic principles of supply and demand in action as the number of listings are at very low levels and that number is not increasing because the inventory is selling. Our WIDREB numbers indicate an inventory of about 1.2 months for listings, which translates into the fact that if a good house hits the market it will likely receive multiple offers which drives sales prices upward."

GOVERNMENT CONTROLS
Switching forward to 2017, the incremental increases in house prices has been a trend which Justin Trudeau has not been able to stop even though legislation continues to move through Parliament pertaining to foreign ownership and the increases seen in CMHC insurance fees.
Many links are listed below which depict real estate sales numbers – Toronto, London area, Tri-Cities of Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge, and naturally the Woodstock region too.
LONDON
The LSTAR (London – St Thomas) board reports a historical number reached in April of 2017 as the average price of a 2-storey detached home is now higher than $500,000. The average of all homes is above $325,000 which translates into a 16% increase over the past 12 months.
The London Free Press does a nice breakdown of all the numbers in its interpretation of the LSTAR press release as the newspaper notes that 1220 reported sales in that region mark a 14.2% increase when looking back to April of 2016, but in St Thomas itself the average sale price was $270,439 among the 97 reported transactions.
The St. Thomas average is considerably lower than the Woodstock average.
In the K-W area, prices have soared about 40% in one calendar. You really can’t say it’s an anomaly in the numbers based on a small sample as there were 766 sales in April – up from 729 last April. The average price is now $512,656 – an upward change from $367,000 last April.

The average price for a detached home in K-W is $594,453. That sentence – and that sentence alone – tells you why Woodstock’s prices have leaped so much.
A detached home in Cambridge, for example, is now just below $540,000, which represent about a 31% increase in 12 months.

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"Not surprisingly, the current imbalance of supply and demand led to another very large year-over-year increase in the average sale price in the region," Cambridge real estate association president Jim Robinson said in a news release as noted in the Waterloo Region Record.
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After 18 years as a full-time Realtor the only time I have seen any activity even closely resembling the current vibrant market was in 2005. The bottom line is that long-term real estate ownership is a solid investment as everyone needs a home.
Maybe later this month I will post a math graph, which will compare how equity quickly grows as mortgage payments reduce your principle amount owed and then also compare average price sales out-pacing inflation. Before I receive comments, I do know there is a third angle and that’s the amount spent on updates and maintenance (carpeting, shingles, furnace, paint, etc).   


LINKS:

Mark Schadenberg, Sales Representative
Senior Real Estate Specialist (SRES designation)

Royal LePage Triland Realty
Independently Owned & Operated, Brokerage
757 Dundas St, Woodstock
(519) 537-1553, cell or text
Email: mschadenberg@rogers.com
Twitter: markroyallepage
Facebook: Mark Schadenberg, Royal LePage Triland

Discussion . . . Direction . . . Determination . . . Destination



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