Vibrant market continued through the 4th month of this year
Updates from K-W and London confirm the many recent trends
As you may know, I’m a former sports editor of the Woodstock Sentinel-Review
(1992-98), so you know 4 (I often evolve away from CP style) things – I love
Woodstock, sports, the media, and I maintain many contacts in local media.
For example, I often write about news / happenings on these pages
that the local media has not covered, so after I write about a particular topic
I often suggest to the Sentinel, Heart FM, Country 104, that they should
promote the same item of interest. The local media sometimes follows my lead.
After I wrote about expansions at both Ecole Ste Marguerite
Bourgeoys and Southside School, soon there was local press clippings / reports on
the same.
Look back to my recent writings
about schools expansions in Woodstock
At the same parallel time, local media may contact me on occasion
looking for assistance on real estate, the local sports wall of fame, Relay For
Life (Cancer Society) and other areas of my personal interest.
Heather Rivers is a terrific reporter at the Sentinel-Review and
she contacted me for both the current Woodstock-Ingersoll real estate stats for
April (I noticed – by the way – in the mass email sent to all real estate offices
and media that the WIDREB board sent its press release to a non-existent
Sentinel email address).
APRIL 2017
While the month of April in 2017 topped April of 2005 by a narrow margin, the
story only starts there as April of 2005 (you may recall) was unique in
Woodstock history as speculation about a major economic announcement for
Woodstock was brewing. It wasn’t until June of 2005 that Toyota officially
announced it had assembled land on the east end of Woodstock to build a massive
manufacturing facility to assemble the RAV 4. It was remarkable how quiet this compiling
of farms, rural residential and Blandford Square Mall talks were initially.
Great news in the end as Toyota was expanding its Ontario manufacturing
operations from Cambridge to also include Woodstock.
In April of 2017 sales (WIDREB transactions; Woodstock, Ingersoll,
Norwich, Beachville, Innerkip, Sweaburg, Salford, Embro, Drumbo, etc., but not
Tillsonburg) were 163, compared to 162 in April of 2005.
In four months of 2017 there have been 601 calculated sales,
compared to 477 sales last year, which eventually ended up as an overall yearly
number to exceed 2005. (See numbers below)
Numbers have stayed relatively tied to both local and national
economic indicators as you will see from the graphics and slew of numbers, and
if you add in the idea that in April of 2004 there were 139 sales and a 4-month
total of 437, and in 2006 there were 103 April sales and a 4-month total of 396
Here are my quotes and other details I submitted to Heather.
"Many interesting statistics can be deciphered from the
recent reported sales totals (from the WIDREB office). In April of 2015 -- just
2 years ago -- 26 per cent of all sales (141 total sales / 37) were in the
modest 200,000 - 260,000 price range. Now that per cent is only about 7 (163 /
18) which means the entry-level price range is quickly out-pacing an amount
first-time buyers are hoping to be able to purchase at."
Year-by-year total WIDREB sales numbers.
2016: 1545
2015: 1424 2014: 1180
2013: 1252
2012: 1066 2011:
1158 2010: 1216
2009:
1080
2008: 1176 2007: 1359
2006: 1278
2005: 1473
The above numbers I have posted almost every month as the WIDREB
overall picture.
"Last year in the WIDREB trading area the transactions totals
easily surpassed the remarkable year of 2005 when Toyota announced it was
building a manufacturing facility in Woodstock (1,545 compared to 1,473). Now
in 2017, we are quickly surpassing last year's pace at 624 sales already versus
477 in the first 4 months of 2016."
Everything is relative and comparable when you look at nearby
Kitchener.
"However, looking just down the road to the
Kitchener-Waterloo region where the average price of a detached home is now
$594,453 and the overall average is 512,000, it would certainly appear as if
the Woodstock area is actually quite reasonable at about $355,000"
“In quick math terms, with an increase of just over 30% on the
sale price of any home, if your house was worth $200,000 in April of 2016, it's
now market value could easily be in the range of $260,000 -- quite an increase
in just 12 months.”
"It truly is the economic principles of supply and demand in
action as the number of listings are at very low levels and that number is not
increasing because the inventory is selling. Our WIDREB numbers indicate an
inventory of about 1.2 months for listings, which translates into the fact that
if a good house hits the market it will likely receive multiple offers which
drives sales prices upward."
GOVERNMENT
CONTROLS
Switching
forward to 2017, the incremental increases in house prices has been a trend
which Justin Trudeau has not been able to stop even though legislation
continues to move through Parliament pertaining to foreign ownership and the
increases seen in CMHC insurance fees.
Many
links are listed below which depict real estate sales numbers – Toronto, London
area, Tri-Cities of Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge, and naturally the
Woodstock region too.
LONDON
The
LSTAR (London – St Thomas) board reports a historical number reached in April
of 2017 as the average price of a 2-storey detached home is now higher than
$500,000. The average of all homes is above $325,000 which translates into a
16% increase over the past 12 months.
The
London Free Press does a nice breakdown of all the numbers in its
interpretation of the LSTAR press release as the newspaper notes that 1220
reported sales in that region mark a 14.2% increase when looking back to April
of 2016, but in St Thomas itself the average sale price was $270,439 among the
97 reported transactions.
The
St. Thomas average is considerably lower than the Woodstock average.
In
the K-W area, prices have soared about 40% in one calendar. You really can’t
say it’s an anomaly in the numbers based on a small sample as there were 766
sales in April – up from 729 last April. The average price is now $512,656 – an
upward change from $367,000 last April.
The
average price for a detached home in K-W is $594,453. That sentence – and that
sentence alone – tells you why Woodstock’s prices have leaped so much.
A
detached home in Cambridge, for example, is now just below $540,000, which
represent about a 31% increase in 12 months.
:::::::::::::::::::::::
"Not
surprisingly, the current imbalance of supply and demand led to another very
large year-over-year increase in the average sale price in the region,"
Cambridge real estate association president Jim Robinson said in a news release
as noted in the Waterloo Region Record.
:::::::::::::::::::::::
After
18 years as a full-time Realtor the only time I have seen any activity even
closely resembling the current vibrant market was in 2005. The bottom line is
that long-term real estate ownership is a solid investment as everyone needs a
home.
Maybe
later this month I will post a math graph, which will compare how equity
quickly grows as mortgage payments reduce your principle amount owed and then
also compare average price sales out-pacing inflation. Before I receive
comments, I do know there is a third angle and that’s the amount spent on
updates and maintenance (carpeting, shingles, furnace, paint, etc).
LINKS:
Mark Schadenberg, Sales
Representative
Senior Real Estate Specialist
(SRES designation)
Royal LePage Triland Realty
Independently Owned & Operated, Brokerage
757 Dundas St, Woodstock
(519) 537-1553, cell or text
Email: mschadenberg@rogers.com
Twitter: markroyallepage
Facebook: Mark Schadenberg, Royal LePage Triland
Discussion . . . Direction . . . Determination . . .
Destination
Amenities of the home include a security system, 200 amp breakers for hydro, and newer vinyl windows. The roof was brand new in 2016. By looking at the sight lines and measuring dimensions, we believe the car port could be closed in as a garage.
